1	Michigan Land Resources Project Setting the Tone Michigan’s land-based industries – agriculture, forestry, mining, tourism and recreation – contribute $63 Billion (30%) to the state’s economy Land use change is a significant issue, which could have a profound impact on these industries in the future Land-based industries contribute to our scenic landscape and quality of life Polls show that citizens care about land use change: 72% are concerned about loss of agriculture land, 65% believe that loss of forests is a serious problem
2	Results: Future Trends
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4	Land to Population Growth Ratios 1960-1990
5	Land Use Change (1980-2040) Southeast Michigan
6	Land Use Change (1980-2040) Southwest Michigan
7	Land Use Change (1980-2040) Northwest Lower Michigan
8	Economic Impacts: Agriculture Michigan will lose 15% of its farmland by 2040, with about a 25% loss in metropolitan areas. Agricultural diversity will diminish as the land in fruit declines by 25%, dry beans by 36%, potatoes by 16%, and vegetables by 13%; acreage in major field crops will remain about the same. The 40% of farmland in uses such as hay, pasture, woodland and idle, will drop by a third. Production will increase on most crops as rising yields per acre offset falling acreages, if, as assumed, the potential of biotechnology is realized. Dairying will remain viable even with a 25% decline in cow numbers, but all livestock sectors will need to adjust to meet environmental standards.
9	Economic Impacts: Forestry Trees may increase on abandoned land, but net forestland loss will approach 10%, with greatest losses in southern lower Michigan by up to 25%. Forest lands will be increasingly fragmented into smaller, less manageable, and less economically viable blocks. Increased built area will force forest managers to alter management practices, restricting harvest frequencies and adding to production costs. Both wildfire danger to homes and local opposition to forestry and mill operations will likely increase as development moves into rural areas, especially in the northern Lower Peninsula.
10	Economic Impacts: Mining Building and construction costs will rise as transportation of materials, such as sand, gravel, and stone, occurs over longer distances when local deposits are urbanized. Growth in the built area and land fragmentation will change ownership patterns and mineral rights, making future oil and gas exploration and recovery difficult and costly. Growth in the built area is increasingly co-located with existing clay, gypsum and other materials deposits, creating land use conflicts and increased production costs. Accessibility to land for mineral exploration, development, and production is a principle factor that is directly and negatively impacted by urbanization, sprawl, and land fragmentation.
11	Economic Impacts: Tourism & Recreation Built area increases along transportation corridors will reduce the aesthetic appeal and draw of Michigan’s destination resorts and recreation areas. Small changes can have big impacts. Land use change and landscape fragmentation will reduce wildlife corridors and recreational trails. The tendency for land use change adjacent to lakeshores and streams will reduce water quality and habitat and create a decline in inland lake and cold-water fisheries. Land owner conflicts and safety zone requirements will impact and restrict access to recreational uses of huntable lands. Each 30x30 structure creates a 16 acre safety zone around it.
12	Participants in the Study Oversight: Public Sector Consultants, Inc., Lansing Land Use Projections: Michigan State University Stuart Gage Bryan Pijanowski David Skole Economic Impact Assessments: Agriculture: Jake Ferris (MSU) Forestry: Michael Moore (UM) Mining: Mark Roberts & Gary Campbell (MTU) Tourism/Recreation: Charles Nelson (MSU) Communication: Pace & Partners, Inc., Lansing Evaluation: Planning & Zoning Center, Inc., Lansing
13	"Michigan Economic & Environmental Roundtable..." Michigan Economic & Environmental Roundtable Members MEER President - James DuBay AFL/CIO – Tim Hughes East Michigan Environmental Action Council – Elizabeth Harris Greater Downtown Partnership, Inc. – Larry Marantette Hanson Cold Storage Company – Jordan Tatter Michigan Environmental Council – Lana Pollack and Conan Smith Michigan Farm Bureau – Al Almy Michigan Municipal League – George Goodman Michigan Retailers Association – Larry Meyer Michigan State University – Gordon Guyer and William Taylor Michigan United Conservation Clubs – Dennis Fox and Jim Goodheart The Dow Chemical Company – Joy Hutchison The Nature Conservancy – Helen Taylor Traverse City Area Chamber of Commerce– Hal VanSumeren Washtenaw County Drain Commissioner – Janis Bobrin
14	"Advisory Council" Advisory Council Crystal Mountain Resort – Chris MacInnes International Paper – Mark Pontti Michigan Chamber of Commerce – Jim Barrett and Kevin Korpi Michigan Farm Bureau – Al Almy Michigan State University – Gordon Guyer and William Taylor Michigan United Conservation Clubs – Dennis Fox and Jim Goodheart The Frey Foundation – John Frey and Milt Rohwer
15	Funding provided by: The W.K. Kellogg Foundation of Battle Creek The Frey Foundation of Grand Rapids